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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Wayfarerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Bounty Hunter

Dazzle
Dazzle
Flash · 8 games
38%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kAAN · 4 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Adzantick · 4 games
25%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Shad · 4 games
50%
Doom
Doomoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 3 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Flash · 3 games
67%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Shad · 2 games
0%

Wayfarers

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Immersion · 12 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Cloud · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
HappyDyurara · 11 games
82%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Squad1x · 10 games
90%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Immersion · 10 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
meLes · 9 games
78%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Alberkaaa · 9 games
67%
Mars
Marssignature
Cloud · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
683 picks · 533 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
480 picks · 735 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
477 picks · 629 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
454 picks · 948 bans
55%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
360 picks · 421 bans
55%
Zeus
Zeus
311 picks · 396 bans
45%
Razor
Razor
286 picks · 529 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
280 picks · 147 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Wayfarers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:36
No Bounty Hunter 53%Wayfarers 47%
The model gave 53% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 44:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterkAAN
47% · 41 game53% · 47 games
Faceless VoidDarkLord^
Faceless Void
Lina
LinaStojkov
49% · 112 games56% · 62 games
DoomPetushara
Doom
Enchantress
EnchantressMary_y
51% · 121 game46% · 98 games
InvokerSquad1x
Invoker
Omniknight
OmniknightFlash
50% · 26 games46% · 68 games
Undyingxsvampire
Undying
54% · 25 games
Crystal MaidenHappyDyurara
Crystal Maiden
Game 2prediction correct32:23
No Bounty Hunter 53%Wayfarers 47%
The model gave 53% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 39:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzkAAN
45% · 10 games47% · 37 games
Faceless VoidDarkLord^
Faceless Void
Lina
LinaStojkov
51% · 107 games47% · 26 games
ZeusSquad1x
Zeus
Mirana
MiranaMary_y
57% · 115 games48% · 149 games
PangolierPetushara
Pangolier
Undying
UndyingFlash
50% · 66 games55% · 42 games
Earthshakerxsvampire
Earthshaker
41% · 44 games
ChenHappyDyurara
Chen
Game 3prediction missed14:38
No Bounty Hunter 53%Wayfarers 47%
The model gave 53% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by Wayfarers in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckStojkov
54% · 254 games47% · 55 games
AlchemistDarkLord^
Alchemist
Morphling
MorphlingkAAN
43% · 83 games57% · 93 games
BatriderSquad1x
Batrider
Enigma
EnigmaMary_y
53% · 80 games42% · 86 games
Night StalkerPetushara
Night Stalker
Omniknight
OmniknightFlash
37% · 22 games59% · 96 games
Nyx Assassinxsvampire
Nyx Assassin
47% · 109 games
EnchantressHappyDyurara
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 57%
Series resultWayfarers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3