The International 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
No_Hoodwinkloss 1:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:2
NNoobitASwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No_Hoodwink
No games played over 6 months.
NoobitAS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
487 picks · 224 bans
Tiny
449 picks · 704 bans
Centaur Warrunner
434 picks · 616 bans
Gyrocopter
428 picks · 393 bans
Batrider
411 picks · 753 bans
Rubick
387 picks · 161 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 749 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 1043 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% No_Hoodwink
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% No_Hoodwink
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
No_Hoodwink 61%NoobitAS 39%
The model gave 61% on No_Hoodwink — the game was taken by NoobitAS.
Game 2prediction correct17:35
No_Hoodwink 61%NoobitAS 39%
The model gave 61% on No_Hoodwink — the game was taken by No_Hoodwink in 36:01.
Game 3prediction missed20:33
No_Hoodwink 61%NoobitAS 39%
The model gave 61% on No_Hoodwink — the game was taken by NoobitAS in 30:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteNo_Hoodwink · 61%
Series resultNoobitAS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3