Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 9 · BO3
result vs predictionNMNo Monkey Businessloss 0:2
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Monkey Business
Razoroften banned
xannii · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 5 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Egor · 5 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
illusion · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
xannii · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 4 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 4 games
Hydra
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 30 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 29 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 27 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Blizzy · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 24 games
Invokersignature
Askold · 20 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Muka · 18 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
467 picks · 276 bans
Mars
408 picks · 541 bans
Weaver
346 picks · 455 bans
Queen of Pain
334 picks · 496 bans
Death Prophet
316 picks · 538 bans
Kunkka
284 picks · 514 bans
Ember Spirit
270 picks · 373 bans
Tiny
265 picks · 290 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 52%
Hero pool strength57% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct12:34
No Monkey Business 39%Hydra 61%
The model gave 61% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerxannii
HuskarKami
Storm SpiritEgor
LinaAskold
BeastmasterMieRo
PangolierBlizzy
Keeper of the Lightillusion
Dark WillowMuka
47% · 26 games
PugnaZayac
Game 2prediction correct20:36
No Monkey Business 38%Hydra 62%
The model gave 62% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 26:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaverxannii
Templar AssassinKami
InvokerEgor
PuckAskold
Legion CommanderMieRo
JakiroBlizzy
Skywrath Mageillusion
Monkey KingMuka
36% · 14 games
PugnaZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 72%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2