Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs predictionNMNo Monkey Businesswin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Novaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Monkey Business
Dragon Knightsignature
meLes · 11 games
Hoodwink
illusion · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
xannii · 11 games
Razorsignature
xannii · 10 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 7 games
Pangolieroften banned
MieRo · 7 games
Nova
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
foryou · 8 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
paradise' · 8 games
Ember Spiritsignature
foryou · 6 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
paradise' · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
foryou · 5 games
Puckoften banned
foryou · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
460 picks · 282 bans
Mars
447 picks · 605 bans
Tiny
409 picks · 476 bans
Sand King
368 picks · 489 bans
Death Prophet
362 picks · 776 bans
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 516 bans
Storm Spirit
319 picks · 489 bans
Pangolier
315 picks · 461 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% No Monkey Business
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% No Monkey Business
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:16
No Monkey Business 57%Nova 43%
The model gave 57% on No Monkey Business — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidxannii
Phantom Lancerparadise'
PangoliermeLes
Ember Spiritforyou
Queen of Painxn丶e
MarsBb3px
Hoodwinkillusion
Game 2prediction correct39:28
No Monkey Business 57%Nova 43%
The model gave 57% on No Monkey Business — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 48:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusaxannii
Ember Spiritforyou
Death Prophetxn丶e
Ursaparadise'
Dragon KnightmeLes
EnigmaBb3px
Hoodwinkillusion
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Monkey Business · 63%
Series resultNo Monkey Business 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2