Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 10 · BO3
result vs predictionNMNo Monkey Businessloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Monkey Business
Hoodwink
illusion · 13 games
Dragon Knightsignature
meLes · 12 games
Kunkkaoften banned
xannii · 11 games
Razorsignature
xannii · 10 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Egor · 8 games
Invokeroften banned
Egor · 8 games
Pangoliersignature
MieRo · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 7 games
PSG Quest
Death Prophetoften banned
No!ob · 3 games
Mirana
OmaR · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 3 games
Undyingoften banned
Eixn · 3 games
Hoodwink
OmaR · 2 games
Iooften banned
Eixn · 2 games
Puckoften banned
No!ob · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
455 picks · 280 bans
Mars
447 picks · 612 bans
Tiny
410 picks · 478 bans
Sand King
374 picks · 497 bans
Death Prophet
363 picks · 780 bans
Ember Spirit
342 picks · 519 bans
Storm Spirit
321 picks · 496 bans
Pangolier
318 picks · 468 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% No Monkey Business
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:11
No Monkey Business 57%PSG Quest 43%
The model gave 57% on No Monkey Business — the game was taken by No Monkey Business in 44:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassinxn丶e
PangolierNo!ob
Wraith Kingxannii
Keeper of the LightOmaR
Sand KingmeLes
AbaddonEixn
Skywrath Mageillusion
Game 2prediction missed29:26
No Monkey Business 57%PSG Quest 43%
The model gave 57% on No Monkey Business — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Rangerxannii
BatriderNo!ob
Queen of Painxn丶e
Keeper of the LightOmaR
MarsmeLes
UndyingEixn
Hoodwinkillusion
Game 3prediction missed44:30
No Monkey Business 55%PSG Quest 45%
The model gave 55% on No Monkey Business — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 46:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinyxannii
PuckNo!ob
PangoliermeLes
ChenEixn
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Hoodwinkillusion
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Monkey Business · 62%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3