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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Runesloss 1:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Mad Kingswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Runes

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Nuages · 3 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Nuages · 3 games
33%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
50%
Mirana
Mirana
Jupiter · 2 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 2 games
100%

Mad Kings

Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
64%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
sl4d1n- · 10 games
50%
Silencer
Silencer
Gardick · 9 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
ArzenT · 8 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Mnz · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 8 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Thiolicor · 8 games
38%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mnz · 8 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
479 picks · 322 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
473 picks · 463 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
463 picks · 408 bans
51%
Mirana
Mirana
336 picks · 331 bans
54%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
329 picks · 379 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
289 picks · 150 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
263 picks · 660 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
253 picks · 617 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 67%
Hero pool strength52% No Runes
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
No Runes 24%Mad Kings 76%
The model gave 76% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 27:46.
Game 2prediction correct29:31
No Runes 24%Mad Kings 76%
The model gave 76% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 47:14.
Game 3prediction correct37:41
No Runes 24%Mad Kings 76%
The model gave 76% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 53:52.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 76%
Series resultMad Kings 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3