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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #1 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorrywin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ERTENKELEMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 11 games
64%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
BLACKARXANGEL · 11 games
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dodren · 10 games
40%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Dinozavrik · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Blizzy · 8 games
75%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Worick · 8 games
50%

ERTENKELEM

Rubick
Rubick
sunset · 3 games
0%
Tusk
Tusk
Muka · 3 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
sunset · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
sunset · 1 game
0%
Mirana
Mirana
sunset · 1 game
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Muka · 1 game
0%
Silencer
Silencer
Muka · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tiny
Muka · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
839 picks · 584 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
602 picks · 418 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
521 picks · 540 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
514 picks · 422 bans
47%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
497 picks · 804 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
446 picks · 923 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
439 picks · 308 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
394 picks · 289 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% No Sorry
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:16
No Sorry 49%ERTENKELEM 51%
The model gave 51% on ERTENKELEM — the game was taken by No Sorry in 38:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaDinozavrik
49% · 83 games58% · 140 games
Disruptorsunset
Disruptor
Beastmaster
BeastmasterDominic
40% · 106 games58% · 230 games
Treant ProtectorMuka
Treant Protector
Kunkka
KunkkaDodren
44% · 49 games
Techies
Techiesy0nd
37% · 21 game
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
38% · 111 games
Game 2prediction correct43:24
No Sorry 52%ERTENKELEM 48%
The model gave 52% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 31:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinDinozavrik
40% · 27 games56% · 391 game
Rubicksunset
Rubick
Lycan
LycanDominic
35% · 56 games61% · 162 games
DisruptorMuka
Disruptor
Tusk
TuskDodren
48% · 251 game
Undying
UndyingBLACKARXANGEL
44% · 176 games
Techies
Techiesy0nd
42% · 43 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 57%
Series resultNo Sorry 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2