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Лига Ставок Dota 2 Champions League Season 16 · BO3
result vs prediction
No Sorrywin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
IVYloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

No Sorry

Bane
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 36 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Worick · 26 games
62%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 25 games
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 24 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
y0nd · 19 games
58%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
LastHero- · 18 games
61%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 18 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 18 games
44%

IVY

Tiny
Tiny
Mo13ei · 31 game
58%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Max · 16 games
69%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 15 games
47%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Max · 14 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 13 games
54%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
69%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 12 games
58%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Lowskill · 11 games
64%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
Marci
388 picks · 590 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
360 picks · 269 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
321 picks · 537 bans
55%
Enigma
Enigma
246 picks · 755 bans
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
239 picks · 359 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
232 picks · 333 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
214 picks · 734 bans
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
213 picks · 406 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 32%
Hero pool strength50% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:28
No Sorry 55%IVY 45%
The model gave 55% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 35:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pudge
Pudgelayme
47% · 69 games52% · 112 games
Chaos KnightMax
Chaos Knight
Broodmother
BroodmotherCloud
48% · 43 games47% · 196 games
Ember SpiritMo13ei
Ember Spirit
Leshrac
LeshracWorick
52% · 97 games59% · 84 games
Crystal MaidenQupe
Crystal Maiden
Hoodwink
HoodwinkArrOw
42% · 161 game55% · 167 games
Marcijmn-
Marci
Enchantress
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
46% · 189 games
Game 2prediction correct58:33
No Sorry 56%IVY 44%
The model gave 56% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 38:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracWorick
49% · 123 games53% · 201 game
RazorMax
Razor
Doom
Doomlayme
48% · 129 games46% · 284 games
Ember SpiritMo13ei
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterCloud
35% · 128 games56% · 154 games
Undyingjmn-
Undying
Tiny
TinyArrOw
51% · 457 games56% · 309 games
MarciQupe
Marci
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
53% · 111 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 62%
Series resultNo Sorry 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2