FISSURE Universe: Episode 4. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Nolifer5win 1:0series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Letoloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nolifer5
No games played over 6 months.
Leto
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Phoenix
470 picks · 589 bans
Muerta
463 picks · 398 bans
Batrider
450 picks · 560 bans
Clockwerk
429 picks · 534 bans
Gyrocopter
418 picks · 776 bans
Tiny
416 picks · 472 bans
Magnus
400 picks · 881 bans
Lion
396 picks · 233 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Nolifer5
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Leto
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Nolifer5 45%Leto 55%
The model gave 55% on Leto — the game was taken by Nolifer5.
Model check result
Model favoriteLeto · 55%
Series resultNolifer5 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1