PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
NoLogoJustMMRwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MHMagic Handsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoLogoJustMMR
Ogre Magi
Flash · 4 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 4 games
Rubick
G.T.I · 4 games
Windrangeroften banned
legacy · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
Warlock
Flash · 3 games
Dark Willow
piro · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 2 games
Magic Hands
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
535 picks · 860 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 374 bans
Dragon Knight
472 picks · 640 bans
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 592 bans
Shadow Demon
392 picks · 792 bans
Gyrocopter
351 picks · 575 bans
Ember Spirit
350 picks · 556 bans
Mars
341 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Magic Hands
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% NoLogoJustMMR
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:13
NoLogoJustMMR 52%Magic Hands 48%
The model gave 52% on NoLogoJustMMR — the game was taken by NoLogoJustMMR in 29:03.
Game 2prediction correct43:19
NoLogoJustMMR 52%Magic Hands 48%
The model gave 52% on NoLogoJustMMR — the game was taken by NoLogoJustMMR in 28:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoLogoJustMMR · 52%
Series resultNoLogoJustMMR 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2