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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NoLogoJustMMRloss 0:2
series probability
14%86%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoLogoJustMMR

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
legacy · 4 games
50%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Flash · 3 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
G.T.I · 3 games
33%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 2 games
100%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
G.T.I · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 1 game
0%
Huskar
Huskaroften banned
legacy · 1 game
100%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 52 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 45 games
51%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 39 games
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
42%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 28 games
79%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 28 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 25 games
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 25 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
550 picks · 821 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
512 picks · 367 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
473 picks · 644 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
458 picks · 577 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 743 bans
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
357 picks · 578 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
344 picks · 473 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
340 picks · 537 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:31
NoLogoJustMMR 30%Rune Eaters 70%
The model gave 70% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 29:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Viper
ViperBliNcc
49% · 52 games44% · 116 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritlegacy
53% · 315 games49% · 288 games
PuckEthereal
Puck
Phoenix
PhoenixJeezy
56% · 150 games50% · 155 games
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dawnbreaker
Jakiro
JakiroFlash
48% · 400 games52% · 334 games
Ringmasterani-san
Ringmaster
45% · 24 games
Omniknightmonodrama
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct19:45
NoLogoJustMMR 29%Rune Eaters 71%
The model gave 71% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 29:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalegacy
55% · 203 games46% · 183 games
Templar Assassinyowaai
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerG.T.I
49% · 112 games56% · 252 games
PuckEthereal
Puck
Jakiro
JakiroJeezy
50% · 526 games49% · 200 games
SlardarAnkou
Slardar
Ringmaster
RingmasterStoic
46% · 334 games51% · 152 games
Chenmonodrama
Chen
49% · 388 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 86%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2