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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
NoLogoJustMMRwin 2:1
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Lynxloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoLogoJustMMR

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 3 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
G.T.I · 2 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nyx · 1 game
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
legacy · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealer
legacy · 1 game
0%
Luna
Luna
legacy · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
legacy · 1 game
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Stoic · 1 game
0%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 19 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 14 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 13 games
62%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 13 games
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
50%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 11 games
27%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
mellojul · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
545 picks · 815 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
505 picks · 365 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
467 picks · 644 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
452 picks · 573 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
387 picks · 731 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 575 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
341 picks · 468 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 530 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 51%
Hero pool strength56% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total83% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed40:28
NoLogoJustMMR 32%Team Lynx 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by NoLogoJustMMR in 44:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerG.T.I
48% · 112 games48% · 97 games
Shadow Fiend7jesu
Shadow Fiend
Windranger
Windrangerlegacy
53% · 98 games50% · 139 games
Batridermellojul
Batrider
Ringmaster
RingmasterJeezy
54% · 182 games47% · 112 games
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
Axe
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFlash
54% · 60 games51% · 70 games
Pugnakreker
Pugna
39% · 34 games
Spirit BreakerQBFY
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct6:35
NoLogoJustMMR 32%Team Lynx 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 27:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawG.T.I
50% · 164 games50% · 77 games
Shadow Fiend7jesu
Shadow Fiend
Windranger
Windrangerlegacy
49% · 215 games43% · 117 games
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Rubick
RubickJeezy
51% · 37 games48% · 71 game
Primal Beastmellojul
Primal Beast
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFlash
63% · 54 games51% · 184 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
38% · 21 game
Omniknightkreker
Omniknight
Game 3prediction missed34:17
NoLogoJustMMR 30%Team Lynx 70%
The model gave 70% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by NoLogoJustMMR in 41:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Huskar
Huskarlegacy
53% · 131 game52% · 249 games
Gyrocopter7jesu
Gyrocopter
Timbersaw
TimbersawG.T.I
50% · 294 games48% · 247 games
Storm Spiritmellojul
Storm Spirit
Warlock
WarlockFlash
52% · 546 games42% · 121 game
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
Axe
Windranger
WindrangerJeezy
50% · 347 games51% · 276 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
50% · 425 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 83%
Series resultNoLogoJustMMR 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3