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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
beastcoastwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Michael · 14 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Oscar · 11 games
82%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Matthew · 11 games
82%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Accel · 9 games
78%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Mariano · 9 games
56%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 8 games
63%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Mariano · 8 games
75%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
401 picks · 1013 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
374 picks · 610 bans
54%
Lion
Lion
371 picks · 192 bans
48%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
364 picks · 367 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
318 picks · 505 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
309 picks · 225 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
308 picks · 679 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
275 picks · 153 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 73%
Hero pool strength59% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:28
NoPing VPN 53%beastcoast 47%
The model gave 53% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by beastcoast in 22:20.
Game 2prediction correct36:24
NoPing VPN 53%beastcoast 47%
The model gave 53% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 29:05.
Game 3prediction missed26:22
NoPing VPN 53%beastcoast 47%
The model gave 53% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by beastcoast in 25:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 53%
Series resultbeastcoast 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3