Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 0:2series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Dreamerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Snapfire
Accel · 16 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 14 games
Grimstroke
Accel · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 13 games
Banesignature
Accel · 11 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 11 games
Iosignature
Duster · 11 games
Marssignature
Sacred · 10 games
Dreamers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
479 picks · 662 bans
Tiny
473 picks · 448 bans
Bane
454 picks · 277 bans
Dragon Knight
415 picks · 495 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 574 bans
Grimstroke
349 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 54%
Hero pool strength55% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:28
NoPing VPN 66%Dreamers 34%
The model gave 66% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Dreamers in 37:38.
Game 2prediction missed11:37
NoPing VPN 66%Dreamers 34%
The model gave 66% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Dreamers in 33:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 66%
Series resultDreamers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2