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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gorillaz-Pridewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 16 games
38%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 14 games
71%
Bane
Banesignature
Accel · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Accel · 11 games
36%
Io
Iosignature
KJ · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 11 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Michael · 10 games
60%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
RdO · 10 games
40%

Gorillaz-Pride

Snapfire
Snapfire
d1smar · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Genek · 7 games
71%
Bane
Bane
Genek · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
d1smar · 5 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
NaoG · 5 games
40%
Lina
Linaoften banned
TaO · 5 games
100%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cara · 5 games
80%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
TaO · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
447 picks · 263 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
402 picks · 551 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
320 picks · 623 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
316 picks · 367 bans
52%
Weaver
Weaver
304 picks · 387 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 407 bans
51%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
274 picks · 449 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
264 picks · 320 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:15
NoPing VPN 50%Gorillaz-Pride 50%
The model gave 50% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterRdO
41% · 110 games49% · 137 games
Storm SpiritMr.Jeans
Storm Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaSooths
46% · 174 games58% · 123 games
Templar AssassinNaoG
Templar Assassin
Io
IoDuster
51% · 105 games51% · 73 games
Keeper of the LightGenek
Keeper of the Light
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageElmisho
53% · 59 games52% · 115 games
AbaddonYadomi
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed25:41
NoPing VPN 53%Gorillaz-Pride 47%
The model gave 53% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightRdO
52% · 45 games57% · 61 game
Phantom LancerNaoG
Phantom Lancer
Invoker
InvokerSooths
33% · 102 games46% · 181 game
TinyMr.Jeans
Tiny
Mirana
MiranaElmisho
56% · 141 game50% · 77 games
Earth SpiritGenek
Earth Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressDuster
51% · 109 games58% · 78 games
Keeper of the LightYadomi
Keeper of the Light
Game 3prediction missed19:31
NoPing VPN 52%Gorillaz-Pride 48%
The model gave 52% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaRdO
48% · 177 games53% · 129 games
TerrorbladeNaoG
Terrorblade
Invoker
InvokerSooths
45% · 184 games54% · 190 games
PuckMr.Jeans
Puck
Enchantress
EnchantressDuster
49% · 191 game55% · 223 games
MiranaGenek
Mirana
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageElmisho
42% · 59 games52% · 69 games
Ogre MagiYadomi
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 55%
Series resultGorillaz-Pride 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3