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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 2 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Interitusloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 15 games
40%
Bane
Banesignature
Accel · 12 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Accel · 10 games
30%
Io
Iosignature
KJ · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 10 games
70%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
RdO · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marssignature
Sacred · 9 games
89%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 9 games
44%

Interitus

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
H1j4ck · 7 games
57%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Rayuur · 7 games
43%
Bane
Bane
DFlash · 4 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
DFlash · 4 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Amin · 4 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Amin · 3 games
0%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
FCR · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
Bane
439 picks · 264 bans
55%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
376 picks · 495 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 507 bans
54%
Weaver
Weaver
348 picks · 482 bans
51%
Kunkka
Kunkka
282 picks · 491 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
271 picks · 416 bans
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 178 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
252 picks · 298 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 30%
Hero pool strength56% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:10
NoPing VPN 59%Interitus 41%
The model gave 59% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 34:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMandy
42% · 126 gameslittle data
Lone DruidFCR
Lone Druid
Batrider
BatriderSooths
46% · 91 game52% · 44 games
Legion Commandermurd0c
Legion Commander
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonRdO
51% · 143 games48% · 106 games
PangolierH1j4ck
Pangolier
Lich
LichDuster
48% · 14 games62% · 105 games
MiranaAmin
Mirana
52% · 119 games
Death ProphetDFlash
Death Prophet
Game 2prediction correct35:32
NoPing VPN 60%Interitus 40%
The model gave 60% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 54:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyMandy
54% · 220 games48% · 202 games
Templar Assassinmurd0c
Templar Assassin
Invoker
InvokerSooths
45% · 173 games55% · 86 games
LifestealerFCR
Lifestealer
Mirana
MiranaRdO
56% · 225 games47% · 188 games
PangolierH1j4ck
Pangolier
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonDuster
52% · 122 games47% · 209 games
EnchantressDFlash
Enchantress
43% · 55 games
Shadow ShamanAmin
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 68%
Series resultNoPing VPN 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2