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Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mad Kingswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Accel · 15 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 15 games
67%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 14 games
43%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 14 games
57%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 14 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Accel · 12 games
25%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lumière · 12 games
50%
Io
Iooften banned
Duster · 11 games
55%

Mad Kings

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Frank · 11 games
73%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Mjz · 11 games
64%
Mars
Marssignature
Frank · 10 games
80%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sl4d1n- · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ArzenT · 7 games
86%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Mnz · 7 games
57%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Leostyle · 6 games
33%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 6 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
503 picks · 438 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
464 picks · 686 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 541 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
419 picks · 290 bans
58%
Pangolier
Pangolier
358 picks · 596 bans
52%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
356 picks · 577 bans
55%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 650 bans
55%
Sand King
Sand King
333 picks · 490 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Mad Kings
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:35
NoPing VPN 47%Mad Kings 53%
The model gave 53% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMandy
36% · 29 games59% · 148 games
Wraith KingAdrx
Wraith King
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerBrax
38% · 24 games58% · 41 game
EnigmaArzenT
Enigma
Void Spirit
Void SpiritLeostyle
40% · 36 games
Enchantress
EnchantressCys
44% · 23 games
Snapfire
SnapfireMoOz
45% · 77 games
Game 2prediction missed16:39
NoPing VPN 57%Mad Kings 43%
The model gave 57% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMandy
56% · 38 games45% · 155 games
RazorAdrx
Razor
Timbersaw
TimbersawLeostyle
63% · 33 games45% · 61 game
Night StalkerArzenT
Night Stalker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBrax
57% · 47 games
Snapfire
SnapfireMoOz
45% · 86 games
Marci
MarciCys
56% · 12 games
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 56%
Series resultMad Kings 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2