Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNloss 0:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
South Teamwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoPing VPN
Shadow Demonsignature
Accel · 14 games
Grimstroke
Accel · 13 games
Snapfire
Accel · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 13 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 11 games
Iosignature
Duster · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lumière · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 10 games
South Team
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
497 picks · 444 bans
Mars
490 picks · 686 bans
Bane
465 picks · 286 bans
Dragon Knight
436 picks · 519 bans
Sand King
413 picks · 563 bans
Storm Spirit
402 picks · 647 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 608 bans
Grimstroke
356 picks · 312 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% NoPing VPN
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% NoPing VPN
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:20
NoPing VPN 52%South Team 48%
The model gave 52% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by South Team in 30:24.
Game 2prediction missed14:41
NoPing VPN 52%South Team 48%
The model gave 52% on NoPing VPN — the game was taken by South Team in 32:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteNoPing VPN · 52%
Series resultSouth Team 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2