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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNwin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Thunder Awakenloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Michael · 13 games
62%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Matthew · 8 games
88%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Oscar · 8 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Oscar · 7 games
71%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mariano · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Panda · 6 games
83%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Mariano · 6 games
83%

Thunder Awaken

Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mjz · 14 games
86%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
MoOz · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Frank · 12 games
83%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Frank · 12 games
50%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
Mjz · 10 games
80%
Puck
Pucksignature
Leostyle · 10 games
90%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 9 games
44%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Mnz · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 947 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
375 picks · 531 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 700 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
330 picks · 546 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
318 picks · 318 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
284 picks · 160 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 281 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 65%
Hero pool strength54% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
NoPing VPN 46%Thunder Awaken 54%
The model gave 54% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 29:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphethFn
44% · 41 game45% · 89 games
Wraith KingMnz
Wraith King
Death Prophet
Death ProphetOscar
53% · 92 games46% · 36 games
LinaLeostyle
Lina
Tiny
TinyDarkMago
44% · 34 games46% · 40 games
Centaur WarrunnerFrank
Centaur Warrunner
Viper
ViperPanda
55% · 19 games56% · 49 games
Elder TitanMoOz
Elder Titan
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMatthew
60% · 55 games51% · 27 games
Ancient ApparitionMjz
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed21:6
NoPing VPN 44%Thunder Awaken 56%
The model gave 56% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 23:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterhFn
53% · 41 game54% · 10 games
LunaMnz
Luna
Bristleback
BristlebackDarkMago
47% · 15 games52% · 45 games
Death ProphetLeostyle
Death Prophet
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
51% · 40 games57% · 23 games
Nature's ProphetFrank
Nature's Prophet
Viper
ViperPanda
42% · 43 games56% · 31 game
TinyMoOz
Tiny
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMatthew
little data40% · 30 games
AbaddonMjz
Abaddon
Game 3prediction missed33:24
NoPing VPN 47%Thunder Awaken 53%
The model gave 53% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 33:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunahFn
48% · 24 games42% · 32 games
WeaverMnz
Weaver
Batrider
BatriderDarkMago
55% · 58 games51% · 64 games
Storm SpiritLeostyle
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
49% · 27 games45% · 21 game
ViperFrank
Viper
Tiny
TinyMatthew
56% · 50 games47% · 80 games
Earth SpiritMoOz
Earth Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonPanda
49% · 69 games51% · 31 game
ClockwerkMjz
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 59%
Series resultNoPing VPN 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3