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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoPing VPNwin 2:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:1
x5 Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoPing VPN

Mirana
Mirana
sl4d1n- · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
sl4d1n- · 7 games
57%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Accel · 7 games
43%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Mnz · 7 games
57%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
17%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Oscar · 6 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Zxca · 5 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Oscar · 5 games
40%

x5 Gaming

Mirana
Miranasignature
Wij · 8 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Benny · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Wij · 5 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
FCR · 5 games
20%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
FCR · 4 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Wij · 4 games
25%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Wij · 4 games
50%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
FCR · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
756 picks · 624 bans
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
610 picks · 535 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
544 picks · 1330 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
541 picks · 1068 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
465 picks · 500 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
463 picks · 1168 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
463 picks · 964 bans
55%
Enchantress
Enchantress
445 picks · 639 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 62%
Hero pool strength57% x5 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% x5 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:8
NoPing VPN 42%x5 Gaming 58%
The model gave 58% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 28:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenhFn
59% · 88 games44% · 89 games
MorphlingBenny
Morphling
Underlord
Underlorddrakeel
53% · 44 games45% · 148 games
BatriderTavo
Batrider
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonYor
53% · 76 games47% · 58 games
VenomancerWij
Venomancer
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightZxca
52% · 87 games
Game 2prediction correct28:40
NoPing VPN 44%x5 Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by x5 Gaming in 41:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenhFn
45% · 28 games45% · 119 games
MagnusBenny
Magnus
Doom
Doomdrakeel
54% · 184 games52% · 262 games
BeastmasterTavo
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaZxca
54% · 160 games41% · 33 games
Witch DoctorWij
Witch Doctor
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonYor
58% · 42 games
Game 3prediction missed21:28
NoPing VPN 44%x5 Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on x5 Gaming — the game was taken by NoPing VPN in 36:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladehFn
50% · 78 games50% · 88 games
JuggernautBenny
Juggernaut
Pangolier
Pangolierdrakeel
53% · 160 games50% · 286 games
BatriderTavo
Batrider
Techies
TechiesZxca
51% · 125 games49% · 80 games
OracleWij
Oracle
Disruptor
DisruptorYor
48% · 91 game
Model check result
Model favoritex5 Gaming · 60%
Series resultNoPing VPN 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3