Elite League. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction(T(Not) The Cutloss 0:2
series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LLegacywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
(Not) The Cut
No games played over 6 months.
Legacy
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
384 picks · 351 bans
Vengeful Spirit
337 picks · 332 bans
Centaur Warrunner
321 picks · 524 bans
Mars
315 picks · 459 bans
Techies
303 picks · 234 bans
Hoodwink
295 picks · 174 bans
Batrider
291 picks · 543 bans
Pangolier
282 picks · 432 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% (Not) The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Legacy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:28
(Not) The Cut 23%Legacy 77%
The model gave 77% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 43:37.
Game 2prediction correct35:38
(Not) The Cut 23%Legacy 77%
The model gave 77% on Legacy — the game was taken by Legacy in 47:31.
Model check result
Model favoriteLegacy · 77%
Series resultLegacy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2