DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionNNotwin 2:0
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TBthe bugloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Not
No games played over 6 months.
the bug
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
iAnnihilate · 5 games
Earthshaker
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
Pudge
Newsham · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Newsham · 3 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Boris · 3 games
Phoenix
empyrean5 · 3 games
Pugna
empyrean5 · 3 games
Axeoften banned
MTD · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
636 picks · 697 bans
Tiny
513 picks · 454 bans
Tusk
484 picks · 390 bans
Warlock
431 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
405 picks · 345 bans
Shadow Demon
391 picks · 1070 bans
Puck
381 picks · 800 bans
Mars
377 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% Not
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Not
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Not 64%the bug 36%
The model gave 64% on Not — the game was taken by Not.
Game 2prediction correct
Not 64%the bug 36%
The model gave 64% on Not — the game was taken by Not.
Model check result
Model favoriteNot · 64%
Series resultNot 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2