Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
NoTechieswin 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoTechies
Bounty Hunter
Zayac · 1 game
Bristlebackoften banned
Crystallize · 1 game
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Malik · 1 game
Vengeful Spiritoften banned
Malik · 1 game
Void Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 1 game
B8 Esports
Arc Wardenoften banned
RdO · 1 game
Disruptor
Duster · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 1 game
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 1 game
Rubick
5up · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
5up · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
54 picks · 96 bans
Puck
43 picks · 107 bans
Earth Spirit
39 picks · 30 bans
Void Spirit
38 picks · 59 bans
Phoenix
34 picks · 39 bans
Monkey King
31 picks · 62 bans
Mirana
29 picks · 33 bans
Undying
28 picks · 56 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% NoTechies
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:13
NoTechies 48%B8 Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by NoTechies in 31:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverCrystallize
Wraith KingRdO
Storm SpiritErgon
Void SpiritDendi
TidehunterMalik
Pangolier5up
Nyx AssassinZayac
EnchantressDuster
Witch DoctorSolo
Game 2prediction missed27:6
NoTechies 48%B8 Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by NoTechies in 27:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterCrystallize
Wraith KingRdO
PugnaErgon
Death ProphetDendi
TidehunterMalik
Shadow Shaman5up
Bounty HunterZayac
EnchantressDuster
Keeper of the LightSolo
Model check result
Model favoriteNoTechies · 50%
Series resultNoTechies 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2