Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoTechiesloss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EXTREMUMwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoTechies
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Zayac · 4 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Solo · 4 games
Marsoften banned
Ergon · 3 games
Pugnaoften banned
Ergon · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 3 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Malik · 3 games
EXTREMUM
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
G · 9 games
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 8 games
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Chuvash · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
224 picks · 482 bans
Void Spirit
207 picks · 261 bans
Mars
198 picks · 359 bans
Earth Spirit
179 picks · 146 bans
Keeper of the Light
158 picks · 251 bans
Phoenix
154 picks · 179 bans
Nyx Assassin
146 picks · 484 bans
Rubick
138 picks · 84 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% EXTREMUM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:17
NoTechies 46%EXTREMUM 54%
The model gave 54% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 22:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautCrystallize
BristlebackNefrit
Storm SpiritErgon
Void Spiritmellojul
TimbersawMalik
Death ProphetShachlo
EarthshakerZayac
Keeper of the LightG
Witch DoctorSolo
Earth SpiritChuvash
Game 2prediction missed32:29
NoTechies 47%EXTREMUM 53%
The model gave 53% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by NoTechies in 49:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordCrystallize
JuggernautNefrit
ViperMalik
Batridermellojul
Void SpiritErgon
BrewmasterShachlo
EarthshakerZayac
Death ProphetG
OmniknightSolo
RubickChuvash
Game 3prediction correct11:29
NoTechies 43%EXTREMUM 57%
The model gave 57% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 37:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingCrystallize
Monkey KingNefrit
InvokerErgon
Puckmellojul
PugnaMalik
Dark SeerShachlo
EarthshakerZayac
Death ProphetG
GrimstrokeSolo
ClockwerkChuvash
Model check result
Model favoriteEXTREMUM · 60%
Series resultEXTREMUM 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3