Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
NoTechiesloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoTechies
Bounty Hunter
Zayac · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
Crystallize · 3 games
Witch Doctor
Solo · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Ergon · 2 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 2 games
Pugnaoften banned
Malik · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ergon · 2 games
Natus Vincere
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
GeneRaL · 1 game
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 1 game
Doomoften banned
Iceberg · 1 game
Lycanoften banned
V-Tune · 1 game
Marsoften banned
GeneRaL · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 1 game
Shadow Shaman
RodjER · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
110 picks · 234 bans
Mars
101 picks · 206 bans
Earth Spirit
94 picks · 72 bans
Void Spirit
82 picks · 139 bans
Phoenix
80 picks · 81 bans
Rubick
68 picks · 33 bans
Nyx Assassin
65 picks · 230 bans
Wraith King
65 picks · 67 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:18
NoTechies 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 20:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracErgon
BatriderIceberg
BloodseekerCrystallize
Phantom LancerV-Tune
Outworld DestroyerMalik
BeastmasterGeneRaL
Nyx AssassinZayac
ChenRodjER
Winter WyvernSolo
Shadow ShamanALWAYSWANNAFLY
Game 2prediction correct13:26
NoTechies 50%Natus Vincere 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 31:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageCrystallize
Troll WarlordV-Tune
PuckErgon
Storm SpiritIceberg
BloodseekerMalik
Void SpiritGeneRaL
Earth SpiritZayac
ChenRodjER
Witch DoctorSolo
RubickALWAYSWANNAFLY
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 51%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2