Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs predictionNNoUndyingloss 1:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EXTREMUMwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoUndying
Earth Spirit
velheor · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
LastHero- · 3 games
Jakiro
BLACKARXANGEL · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Kodos · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Kodos · 1 game
EXTREMUM
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 5 games
Alchemist
Nefrit · 3 games
Bounty Hunter
Chuvash · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
G · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
Chuvash · 3 games
Witch Doctor
G · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
113 picks · 249 bans
Mars
103 picks · 218 bans
Earth Spirit
98 picks · 76 bans
Void Spirit
92 picks · 144 bans
Phoenix
86 picks · 90 bans
Rubick
73 picks · 35 bans
Nyx Assassin
69 picks · 247 bans
Wraith King
68 picks · 75 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)70% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% NoUndying
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% NoUndying
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:23
NoUndying 50%EXTREMUM 50%
The model gave 50% on NoUndying — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 34:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BatriderLastHero-
MedusaNefrit
InvokerKodos
Puckmellojul
Earth Spiritvelheor
PangolierShachlo
JakiroBLACKARXANGEL
Death ProphetG
52% · 22 games
PhoenixChuvash
Game 2prediction missed41:34
NoUndying 50%EXTREMUM 50%
The model gave 50% on EXTREMUM — the game was taken by NoUndying in 49:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritKodos
Troll WarlordNefrit
AxeLastHero-
BeastmasterShachlo
Rubickvelheor
Batridermellojul
Keeper of the LightBLACKARXANGEL
PhoenixG
56% · 26 games
Nyx AssassinChuvash
Game 3prediction missed13:39
NoUndying 53%EXTREMUM 47%
The model gave 53% on NoUndying — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 36:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritKodos
AlchemistNefrit
Phoenixvelheor
Batridermellojul
AxeLastHero-
MarsShachlo
Witch DoctorBLACKARXANGEL
MiranaChuvash
little data
BaneG
Model check result
Model favoriteNoUndying · 53%
Series resultEXTREMUM 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3