Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3
result vs predictionNNoUndyingloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
No Bounty Hunterwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
NoUndying
Batridersignature
LastHero- · 6 games
Earth Spirit
velheor · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Kodos · 4 games
Invokeroften banned
Kodos · 3 games
Jakiro
BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
velheor · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
velheor · 3 games
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 7 games
Pucksignature
ntakii · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
ntakii · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Flash · 5 games
Bloodseeker
BliNcc · 3 games
Earth Spirit
dEsire · 3 games
Lycanoften banned
BliNcc · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
kAAN · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
156 picks · 275 bans
Puck
151 picks · 353 bans
Earth Spirit
140 picks · 113 bans
Void Spirit
132 picks · 193 bans
Phoenix
118 picks · 135 bans
Keeper of the Light
104 picks · 188 bans
Nyx Assassin
104 picks · 352 bans
Rubick
100 picks · 53 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% No Bounty Hunter
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:32
NoUndying 50%No Bounty Hunter 50%
The model gave 50% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 23:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MeepoKodos
Chaos KnightkAAN
BatriderLastHero-
Rubickntakii
Shadow Shamanvelheor
Death ProphetBliNcc
Ogre MagiBLACKARXANGEL
OracleFlash
Game 2prediction correct52:51
NoUndying 47%No Bounty Hunter 53%
The model gave 53% on No Bounty Hunter — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 55:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Void SpiritKodos
Faceless VoidkAAN
BatriderLastHero-
Monkey Kingntakii
Earth Spiritvelheor
BloodseekerBliNcc
Death ProphetBLACKARXANGEL
Nature's ProphetFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Bounty Hunter · 52%
Series resultNo Bounty Hunter 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2