NoUndying vs Zero Respect — prediction SSS# · Dota 2

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Snow Sweet Snow #1 · BO3

result vs prediction

NNoUndyingwin 2:0

series probability

74%26%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Zero Respectloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

NoUndying

Earth Spirit

velheor · 5 games

40%

Batrideroften banned

LastHero- · 4 games

75%

Jakiro

BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games

67%

Keeper of the Lightoften banned

BLACKARXANGEL · 3 games

100%

Storm Spiritoften banned

Kodos · 3 games

33%

Axe

LastHero- · 2 games

50%

Invokeroften banned

Kodos · 2 games

Phoenixoften banned

velheor · 2 games

50%

Zero Respect

Clockwerk

Davai · 1 game

Snapfireoften banned

Davai · 1 game

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Mars

123 picks · 231 bans

48%

Puck

122 picks · 277 bans

53%

Earth Spirit

109 picks · 88 bans

50%

Void Spirit

101 picks · 157 bans

58%

Phoenix

97 picks · 101 bans

54%

Rubick

79 picks · 37 bans

51%

Nyx Assassin

77 picks · 276 bans

59%

Keeper of the Light

76 picks · 145 bans

59%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)64% vs 30%

Hero pool strength60% NoUndying

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total74% NoUndying

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct35:28

NoUndying 61%Zero Respect 39%

The model gave 61% on NoUndying — the game was taken by NoUndying in 47:11.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo