PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4A4 amigosloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 17 games
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 17 games
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 16 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 14 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 13 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
4 amigos
Death Prophetoften banned
monkeys-forever · 2 games
Mirana
albinozebra · 2 games
Puckoften banned
RCY · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Brewmasteroften banned
monkeys-forever · 1 game
Chenoften banned
albinozebra · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Double King · 1 game
Lifestealeroften banned
Double King · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 727 bans
Mars
425 picks · 685 bans
Techies
420 picks · 337 bans
Tiny
409 picks · 531 bans
Lion
407 picks · 355 bans
Batrider
405 picks · 890 bans
Crystal Maiden
383 picks · 174 bans
Rubick
382 picks · 181 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 75%
Hero pool strength53% 4 amigos
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total85% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct51:14
nouns 70%4 amigos 30%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 33:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerYuma
PuckRCY
SlardarGunnar
LifestealerDouble King
PangolierCopy
Visagemonkeys-forever
BatriderLelis
Vengeful Spiritalbinozebra
DisruptorFly
Game 2prediction correct35:10
nouns 70%4 amigos 30%
The model gave 70% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 27:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerYuma
TimbersawRCY
Monkey KingCopy
RazorDouble King
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
Omniknightmonkeys-forever
GyrocopterLelis
Disruptoralbinozebra
Crystal MaidenFly
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 85%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2