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Riyadh Masters 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Apex Genesisloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 24 games
58%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 21 game
81%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 19 games
79%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 17 games
65%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Lelis · 17 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 16 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
Fly · 15 games
73%

Apex Genesis

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Fayde · 7 games
43%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
Lowskill · 5 games
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Speeed · 5 games
80%
Phoenix
Phoenix
YamSun · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
red2 · 4 games
25%
Puck
Puckoften banned
red2 · 4 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
YamSun · 4 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
YamSun · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
481 picks · 222 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 682 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
426 picks · 606 bans
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
419 picks · 383 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
413 picks · 751 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
383 picks · 162 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
346 picks · 966 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total71% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:10
nouns 61%Apex Genesis 39%
The model gave 61% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 34:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyYuma
46% · 223 games54% · 49 games
UrsaSammyboy
Ursa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetCopy
50% · 65 games54% · 170 games
Storm SpiritW1sh-
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
53% · 191 game53% · 110 games
SlardarFayde
Slardar
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
48% · 171 game47% · 303 games
RubickBignum
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanLelis
41% · 16 games48% · 34 games
Winter WyvernSpeeed
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct19:23
nouns 59%Apex Genesis 41%
The model gave 59% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 42:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracCopy
51% · 89 games53% · 13 games
Shadow FiendSammyboy
Shadow Fiend
Juggernaut
JuggernautYuma
53% · 17 games55% · 27 games
Night StalkerFayde
Night Stalker
Primal Beast
Primal BeastGunnar
46% · 149 games47% · 54 games
Void SpiritW1sh-
Void Spirit
Muerta
MuertaLelis
43% · 71 game51% · 151 game
Dark WillowBignum
Dark Willow
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
52% · 140 games54% · 221 game
Crystal MaidenSpeeed
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 71%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2