The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Azure Raywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Rubick
Lelis · 24 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
Techiessignature
Husky · 13 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 12 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Disruptor
Husky · 11 games
Azure Ray
Beastmastersignature
BEYOND · 12 games
Pangoliersignature
Somnus · 11 games
Enchantressoften banned
天命 · 10 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
fy · 10 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
lou · 9 games
Rikisignature
天命 · 9 games
Silenceroften banned
天命 · 9 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Somnus · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
661 picks · 455 bans
Techies
660 picks · 696 bans
Doom
578 picks · 1125 bans
Beastmaster
496 picks · 1217 bans
Ember Spirit
486 picks · 1039 bans
Disruptor
477 picks · 445 bans
Enchantress
463 picks · 719 bans
Pangolier
437 picks · 907 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Azure Ray
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:31
nouns 53%Azure Ray 47%
The model gave 53% on nouns — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DoomMoo
Medusalou
Naga SirenYamSun
TimbersawChalice
WindrangerGunnar
Void SpiritSomnus
TechiesLelis
Enigmafy
Skywrath MageHusky
Batrider天命
Game 2prediction missed9:26
nouns 51%Azure Ray 49%
The model gave 51% on nouns — the game was taken by Azure Ray in 26:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaYamSun
PangolierSomnus
WindrangerGunnar
EnigmaChalice
TidehunterMoo
Slarklou
TechiesLelis
Clockwerkfy
SilencerHusky
Lich天命
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 55%
Series resultAzure Ray 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2