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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
nounswin 3:0
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 3:0
B8 Esportsloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 14 games
71%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 14 games
29%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Husky · 11 games
45%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 11 games
45%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 10 games
60%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 10 games
40%
Io
Iosignature
Husky · 9 games
78%

B8 Esports

Rubick
Rubick
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Dendi · 10 games
30%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Funn1k · 9 games
33%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Lodine · 9 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
88%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
43%
Io
Iosignature
Lodine · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
555 picks · 594 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
462 picks · 230 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
423 picks · 775 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 676 bans
49%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
364 picks · 363 bans
48%
Morphling
Morphling
339 picks · 716 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
335 picks · 820 bans
49%
Doom
Doom
333 picks · 696 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total74% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:8
nouns 64%B8 Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 35:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeK1
53% · 243 games48% · 33 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Invoker
InvokerGunnar
44% · 87 games50% · 6 games
SlardarStoneBank
Slardar
Tidehunter
TidehunterMoo
49% · 152 games49% · 239 games
Ember SpiritDendi
Ember Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
51% · 351 game45% · 421 game
RubickCTOMAHEH1
Rubick
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeYamSun
54% · 30 games58% · 164 games
MarciKidaro
Marci
Game 2prediction correct28:13
nouns 61%B8 Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 26:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeK1
50% · 169 games50% · 65 games
Phantom AssassinV-Tune
Phantom Assassin
Leshrac
LeshracGunnar
58% · 160 games47% · 595 games
TinyDendi
Tiny
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMoo
60% · 234 games40% · 156 games
MarsStoneBank
Mars
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYamSun
55% · 169 games47% · 158 games
Skywrath MageCTOMAHEH1
Skywrath Mage
Clockwerk
ClockwerkLelis
51% · 263 games41% · 21 game
GrimstrokeKidaro
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct30:27
nouns 63%B8 Esports 37%
The model gave 63% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 56:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautK1
47% · 39 games50% · 52 games
Faceless VoidV-Tune
Faceless Void
Lycan
LycanMoo
55% · 59 games59% · 9 games
Witch DoctorDendi
Witch Doctor
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGunnar
56% · 32 games49% · 65 games
MarsStoneBank
Mars
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeLelis
44% · 5 games49% · 47 games
PhoenixKidaro
Phoenix
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerYamSun
44% · 60 games47% · 22 games
LionCTOMAHEH1
Lion
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 74%
Series resultnouns 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3