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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BETBOOM TEAMwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 34 games
56%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 24 games
42%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 22 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 21 game
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 20 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 19 games
74%

BETBOOM TEAM

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gpK~ · 26 games
54%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Save- · 24 games
54%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Save- · 22 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Save- · 19 games
47%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Nightfall · 17 games
65%
Mirana
Mirana
TORONTOTOKYO · 16 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 15 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkka
MieRo · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
412 picks · 375 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 419 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 542 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
345 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
330 picks · 716 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
316 picks · 593 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
314 picks · 635 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
313 picks · 723 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total65% BETBOOM TEAM
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:26
nouns 42%BETBOOM TEAM 58%
The model gave 58% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingYuma
52% · 103 games45% · 110 games
AlchemistNightfall
Alchemist
Razor
RazorCopy
51% · 122 games49% · 70 games
InvokergpK~
Invoker
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
56% · 274 games48% · 124 games
BeastmasterMieRo
Beastmaster
Chen
ChenFly
52% · 87 games46% · 247 games
EnchantressTORONTOTOKYO
Enchantress
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinLelis
48% · 65 games51% · 100 games
Keeper of the LightSave-
Keeper of the Light
Game 2prediction correct5:42
nouns 41%BETBOOM TEAM 59%
The model gave 59% on BETBOOM TEAM — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 38:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerYuma
47% · 245 games56% · 174 games
WeaverNightfall
Weaver
Sand King
Sand KingGunnar
58% · 110 games49% · 177 games
DoomMieRo
Doom
Invoker
InvokerCopy
52% · 128 games50% · 318 games
PangoliergpK~
Pangolier
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
47% · 284 games44% · 185 games
SnapfireSave-
Snapfire
Tusk
TuskFly
45% · 186 games53% · 99 games
Treant ProtectorTORONTOTOKYO
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteBETBOOM TEAM · 65%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2