The Bali Major 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Bleed Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Rubick
Lelis · 24 games
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
Doomsignature
Moo · 12 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 12 games
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 12 games
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
Disruptor
Husky · 11 games
Techiessignature
Husky · 11 games
Bleed Esports
Rubick
PlayHard · 16 games
Silencersignature
DuBu · 13 games
Disruptor
DuBu · 9 games
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 9 games
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 7 games
Abaddonsignature
iceiceice · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
681 picks · 455 bans
Techies
641 picks · 680 bans
Doom
577 picks · 1119 bans
Ember Spirit
503 picks · 1047 bans
Beastmaster
499 picks · 1239 bans
Disruptor
496 picks · 476 bans
Enchantress
465 picks · 716 bans
Pangolier
440 picks · 917 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:5
nouns 45%Bleed Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by nouns in 31:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-MageYamSun
MorphlingJaCkky
BroodmotherMoo
Beastmastericeiceice
WindrangerGunnar
Crystal MaidenDJ
TechiesLelis
PhoenixDuBu
LichHusky
Game 2prediction correct6:18
nouns 47%Bleed Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 36:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainGunnar
MedusaJaCkky
Templar AssassinYamSun
Underlordiceiceice
BeastmasterMoo
Shadow DemonDJ
ChenHusky
PugnaDuBu
TechiesLelis
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2