?
arrow_backBack to match
Elite League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:1
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:1
BOOM Esportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 26 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Copy · 24 games
54%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 20 games
65%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 20 games
65%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Lelis · 18 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 16 games
69%

BOOM Esports

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Panda · 25 games
64%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Pakazs · 22 games
73%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Pakazs · 20 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
ILICH- · 19 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Panda · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
DarkMago · 16 games
31%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
387 picks · 827 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
379 picks · 376 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 265 bans
50%
Weaver
Weaver
356 picks · 747 bans
53%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
324 picks · 471 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
323 picks · 515 bans
46%
Phoenix
Phoenix
312 picks · 648 bans
49%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
309 picks · 373 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:19
nouns 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by nouns in 44:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
54% · 112 games48% · 170 games
Templar AssassinParker
Templar Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGunnar
54% · 133 games38% · 99 games
ZeusDarkMago
Zeus
Tiny
TinyCopy
55% · 238 games53% · 83 games
TidehunterSacred
Tidehunter
Jakiro
JakiroLelis
62% · 86 games45% · 230 games
PhoenixYadomi
Phoenix
Sven
SvenFly
49% · 166 games43% · 153 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct16:33
nouns 48%BOOM Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkYuma
48% · 113 games56% · 230 games
GyrocopterParker
Gyrocopter
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGunnar
52% · 142 games48% · 213 games
Dragon KnightDarkMago
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
43% · 177 games54% · 221 game
BrewmasterSacred
Brewmaster
Rubick
RubickLelis
49% · 392 games48% · 38 games
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Nyx Assassin
Snapfire
SnapfireFly
44% · 128 games56% · 250 games
Crystal MaidenYadomi
Crystal Maiden
Game 3prediction missed36:30
nouns 49%BOOM Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by nouns in 49:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
50% · 239 games49% · 172 games
Templar AssassinParker
Templar Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuma
48% · 259 games56% · 219 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Dark Seer
Dark SeerGunnar
47% · 199 games57% · 254 games
HoodwinkMatthew
Hoodwink
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
44% · 281 game52% · 225 games
WeaverSacred
Weaver
Jakiro
JakiroLelis
48% · 105 games49% · 213 games
ClockwerkYadomi
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 51%
Series resultnouns 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 3