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The International 2023 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Techies
Techiessignature
Husky · 15 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Lelis · 14 games
71%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
YamSun · 9 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
K1 · 8 games
63%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Moo · 8 games
38%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Windranger
Windranger
Gunnar · 8 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 7 games
100%

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 30 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
dyrachyo · 30 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
tOfu · 29 games
69%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 28 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 26 games
69%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Seleri · 26 games
54%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ace · 24 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
213 picks · 270 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
179 picks · 384 bans
54%
Sven
Sven
177 picks · 253 bans
57%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
165 picks · 164 bans
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
162 picks · 153 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
160 picks · 68 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
153 picks · 231 bans
49%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
149 picks · 85 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total88% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:28
nouns 27%Gaimin Gladiators 73%
The model gave 73% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeK1
50% · 128 games49% · 262 games
PangolierQuinn
Pangolier
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMoo
45% · 58 games51% · 105 games
TidehunterAce
Tidehunter
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritGunnar
48% · 63 games36% · 16 games
Weaverdyrachyo
Weaver
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLelis
51% · 99 games58% · 26 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetYamSun
59% · 151 game47% · 90 games
GrimstroketOfu
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct8:20
nouns 26%Gaimin Gladiators 74%
The model gave 74% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 25:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMoo
46% · 52 games48% · 64 games
Alchemistdyrachyo
Alchemist
Spectre
SpectreK1
56% · 21 game56% · 22 games
Lone DruidAce
Lone Druid
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGunnar
53% · 93 games36% · 14 games
DazzleQuinn
Dazzle
Tusk
TuskLelis
56% · 236 games49% · 29 games
ChenSeleri
Chen
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeYamSun
47% · 38 games48% · 311 games
TinytOfu
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 88%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2