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The International 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:2
series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 33 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 23 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 22 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 21 game
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 19 games
74%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 19 games
53%

Gaimin Gladiators

Sniper
Sniper
Quinn · 24 games
54%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
dyrachyo · 23 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
63%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
65%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
76%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 17 games
41%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
Quinn · 16 games
81%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
tOfu · 16 games
69%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
413 picks · 376 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
385 picks · 423 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
376 picks · 541 bans
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
346 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
332 picks · 721 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 640 bans
49%
Phoenix
Phoenix
315 picks · 606 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 728 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total79% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:6
nouns 34%Gaimin Gladiators 66%
The model gave 66% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by nouns in 35:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Mirana
MiranaYuma
56% · 76 games44% · 67 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
56% · 94 games42% · 160 games
Razordyrachyo
Razor
Doom
DoomGunnar
47% · 135 games54% · 97 games
InvokerQuinn
Invoker
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
55% · 177 games44% · 157 games
SnapfiretOfu
Snapfire
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
52% · 64 games48% · 65 games
IoSeleri
Io
Game 2prediction correct10:19
nouns 36%Gaimin Gladiators 64%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 36:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverYuma
61% · 137 games46% · 88 games
BroodmotherAce
Broodmother
Doom
DoomGunnar
52% · 139 games47% · 252 games
Windrangerdyrachyo
Windranger
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
63% · 103 games43% · 125 games
Void SpiritQuinn
Void Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
56% · 160 games43% · 85 games
SnipertOfu
Sniper
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
52% · 182 games39% · 171 game
TuskSeleri
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct7:30
nouns 35%Gaimin Gladiators 65%
The model gave 65% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 27:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuma
46% · 103 games49% · 112 games
Nature's Prophetdyrachyo
Nature's Prophet
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCopy
47% · 187 games55% · 126 games
Monkey KingQuinn
Monkey King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterGunnar
49% · 112 games51% · 376 games
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Centaur Warrunner
Windranger
WindrangerLelis
51% · 143 games55% · 38 games
Skywrath MagetOfu
Skywrath Mage
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
43% · 151 game55% · 44 games
OmniknightSeleri
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 79%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3