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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gen of Miraclesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Husky · 18 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Gunnar · 12 games
58%
Doom
Doomsignature
Moo · 11 games
64%
Tiny
Tiny
Lelis · 11 games
45%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
YamSun · 8 games
50%
Io
Iosignature
Husky · 8 games
75%
Riki
Rikioften banned
Gunnar · 8 games
50%

Gen of Miracles

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ChodΣX · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Stoic · 1 game
0%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Stoic · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
ChodΣX · 1 game
0%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
ChodΣX · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Stoic · 1 game
0%
Lich
Lich
Stoic · 1 game
0%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
ChodΣX · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
693 picks · 599 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
556 picks · 488 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
450 picks · 1100 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
444 picks · 795 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
404 picks · 1034 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
382 picks · 205 bans
57%
Pangolier
Pangolier
382 picks · 832 bans
54%
Enchantress
Enchantress
378 picks · 545 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 30%
Hero pool strength59% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:12
nouns 79%Gen of Miracles 21%
The model gave 79% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 35:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaYamSun
70% · 34 games51% · 102 games
MagnusChodΣX
Magnus
Doom
DoomMoo
55% · 102 games43% · 210 games
UndyingStoic
Undying
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritGunnar
41% · 59 games
Batrider
BatriderLelis
53% · 92 games
Pugna
PugnaHusky
45% · 25 games
Game 2prediction correct39:12
nouns 79%Gen of Miracles 21%
The model gave 79% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 23:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusGunnar
57% · 15 games47% · 40 games
Legion CommanderChodΣX
Legion Commander
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYamSun
57% · 18 games55% · 47 games
OracleStoic
Oracle
Enchantress
EnchantressMoo
36% · 17 games
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterLelis
46% · 9 games
Disruptor
DisruptorHusky
47% · 28 games
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 92%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2