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PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GRIN esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 16 games
56%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 16 games
81%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Lelis · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
60%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 14 games
86%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lelis · 12 games
42%

GRIN esports

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 6 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
H1j4ck · 5 games
60%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Moo · 4 games
50%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Double King · 4 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ITALIANO GANGSTA · 4 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Double King · 4 games
25%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Bloody Nine · 4 games
75%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 715 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
414 picks · 667 bans
54%
Techies
Techies
412 picks · 328 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
397 picks · 360 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 511 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 871 bans
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
371 picks · 166 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
368 picks · 175 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total79% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:25
nouns 67%GRIN esports 33%
The model gave 67% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightCopy
63% · 72 games47% · 217 games
MarsMoo
Mars
Lifestealer
LifestealerYuma
47% · 36 games49% · 100 games
TuskLodine
Tusk
Viper
ViperGunnar
32% · 14 games
Tiny
TinyLelis
53% · 105 games
Techies
TechiesFly
55% · 90 games
Game 2prediction correct34:13
nouns 68%GRIN esports 32%
The model gave 68% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 32:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
42% · 55 games48% · 202 games
Spirit BreakerMoo
Spirit Breaker
Doom
DoomGunnar
52% · 77 games52% · 151 game
EnigmaLodine
Enigma
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
49% · 95 games
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLelis
56% · 35 games
Batrider
BatriderFly
50% · 91 game
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 79%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2