BetBoom Dacha Dubai 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
nounswin 3:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Heroicloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 10 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 9 games
Skywrath Mage
Lelis · 9 games
Clockwerksignature
Lelis · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Lelis · 7 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 7 games
Heroic
Ember Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 5 games
Vengeful Spirit
KJ · 5 games
Faceless Voidoften banned
K1 · 3 games
Tiny
Scofield · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Davai · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
K1 · 2 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Davai · 2 games
Lion
Scofield · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
273 picks · 447 bans
Phoenix
246 picks · 392 bans
Centaur Warrunner
242 picks · 331 bans
Muerta
226 picks · 317 bans
Tusk
218 picks · 204 bans
Dark Willow
216 picks · 102 bans
Nature's Prophet
196 picks · 492 bans
Treant Protector
195 picks · 368 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% nouns
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total69% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:22
nouns 61%Heroic 39%
The model gave 61% on nouns — the game was taken by Heroic in 38:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Arc WardenStormstormer
Troll WarlordK1
MeepoYuma
Keeper of the Light4nalog
TidehunterGunnar
UnderlordDavai
Nature's ProphetLelis
Winter WyvernKJ
Vengeful SpiritFly
LionScofield
Game 2prediction correct35:28
nouns 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 50:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainStormstormer
AlchemistK1
SlarkYuma
Pangolier4nalog
Centaur WarrunnerGunnar
TidehunterDavai
PhoenixFly
Nature's ProphetKJ
Vengeful SpiritLelis
LionScofield
Game 3prediction correct43:22
nouns 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeYuma
AlchemistK1
Queen of PainStormstormer
Pangolier4nalog
Winter WyvernGunnar
BrewmasterDavai
TinyLelis
DoomScofield
LionFly
GyrocopterKJ
Game 4prediction correct39:34
nouns 60%Heroic 40%
The model gave 60% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 53:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidYuma
Chaos KnightK1
Queen of PainStormstormer
Meepo4nalog
DoomGunnar
MarsDavai
PhoenixFly
Vengeful SpiritScofield
LionLelis
TechiesKJ
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 69%
Series resultnouns 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4