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BTS Pro Series Season 11. Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Husky · 3 games
100%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Moo · 3 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 3 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Gunnar · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Moo · 2 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Costabile · 2 games
100%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
ZfreeK · 2 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Costabile · 2 games
50%

Infinity Esports

Mars
Marssignature
Valquiria · 14 games
64%
Weaver
Weaver
Jupiter · 13 games
46%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
mini-` · 11 games
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jupiter · 10 games
20%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 9 games
44%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 8 games
50%
Bane
Bane
Nuages · 7 games
29%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Benny · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
464 picks · 618 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
457 picks · 498 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
434 picks · 268 bans
56%
Sand King
Sand King
414 picks · 539 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
353 picks · 809 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 576 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
346 picks · 519 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
344 picks · 381 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 42%
Hero pool strength59% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:8
nouns 58%Infinity Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 35:42.
Game 2prediction correct41:24
nouns 58%Infinity Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 49:01.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 58%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2