DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LCLa Correntadaloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 15 games
Vengeful Spirit
Fly · 15 games
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 14 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 12 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Lelis · 12 games
Techiessignature
Fly · 12 games
La Correntada
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
383 picks · 621 bans
Lion
379 picks · 351 bans
Mars
371 picks · 585 bans
Techies
369 picks · 298 bans
Batrider
351 picks · 746 bans
Vengeful Spirit
348 picks · 342 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 363 bans
Hoodwink
330 picks · 198 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:5
nouns 92%La Correntada 8%
The model gave 92% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 11:26.
Game 2prediction correct17:30
nouns 92%La Correntada 8%
The model gave 92% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 23:20.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 92%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2