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Riyadh Masters 2024 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Tiny
Tinysignature
Lelis · 29 games
62%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Stormstormer · 26 games
65%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 23 games
78%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fly · 22 games
64%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 22 games
77%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lelis · 18 games
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Gunnar · 17 games
47%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 17 games
59%

LGD Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
niu · 17 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niu · 16 games
25%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Setsu · 15 games
53%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 15 games
53%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
niu · 15 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Pyw · 13 games
46%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Setsu · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Pyw · 12 games
83%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
388 picks · 638 bans
52%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
325 picks · 371 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 350 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
316 picks · 440 bans
53%
Weaver
Weaver
304 picks · 535 bans
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 396 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
296 picks · 548 bans
49%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
292 picks · 109 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength54% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:25
nouns 50%LGD Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on nouns — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 45:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuma
47% · 142 games52% · 99 games
Lifestealershiro
Lifestealer
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendCopy
46% · 35 games47% · 76 games
Keeper of the LightEcho
Keeper of the Light
Underlord
UnderlordGunnar
51% · 47 games51% · 140 games
Marsniu
Mars
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
43% · 204 games60% · 156 games
Shadow Demony`
Shadow Demon
Elder Titan
Elder TitanFly
54% · 98 games48% · 55 games
Spirit BreakerPyw
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct31:38
nouns 49%LGD Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 1:30:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinYuma
43% · 166 games48% · 204 games
Ember SpiritEcho
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierGunnar
51% · 331 game51% · 131 game
Troll Warlordshiro
Troll Warlord
Pudge
PudgeCopy
46% · 59 games52% · 165 games
WeaverPyw
Weaver
Hoodwink
HoodwinkLelis
45% · 246 games54% · 233 games
Marsniu
Mars
Sven
SvenFly
56% · 159 games51% · 228 games
Shadow Demony`
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 52%
Series resultLGD Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2