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BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Looking for Orgloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 28 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 21 game
62%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Copy · 20 games
65%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Lelis · 19 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
39%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Lelis · 18 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 18 games
72%

Looking for Org

Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 4 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
75%
Omniknight
Omniknightoften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
75%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 3 games
67%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 3 games
67%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Yadomi · 2 games
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Sacred · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
355 picks · 344 bans
51%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
350 picks · 401 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
349 picks · 258 bans
46%
Pangolier
Pangolier
324 picks · 502 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
295 picks · 264 bans
53%
Sven
Sven
292 picks · 305 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
281 picks · 388 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
278 picks · 457 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 64%
Hero pool strength50% Looking for Org
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:18
nouns 56%Looking for Org 44%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 36:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuma
53% · 178 games56% · 161 game
GyrocopterMnz
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
57% · 112 games50% · 148 games
MarsDarkMago
Mars
Visage
VisageGunnar
44% · 43 games48% · 91 game
DoomSacred
Doom
Marci
MarciLelis
51% · 86 games50% · 4 games
WarlockYadomi
Warlock
Bane
BaneFly
48% · 75 games41% · 90 games
SnapfireMatthew
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct23:6
nouns 57%Looking for Org 43%
The model gave 57% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 31:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaYuma
43% · 118 games47% · 140 games
Dragon KnightMnz
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingCopy
46% · 92 games43% · 46 games
Queen of PainDarkMago
Queen of Pain
Visage
VisageGunnar
49% · 44 games48% · 195 games
PangolierSacred
Pangolier
Lion
LionLelis
52% · 187 games57% · 125 games
Dark WillowMatthew
Dark Willow
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFly
58% · 94 games55% · 29 games
OmniknightYadomi
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 62%
Series resultnouns 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2