BetBoom Dacha Belgrade 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 3:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 3:2
LFLooking for Orgloss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 21 game
Rubick
Lelis · 20 games
Tinysignature
Copy · 20 games
Windrangeroften banned
Lelis · 19 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 18 games
Miranasignature
Lelis · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 18 games
Looking for Org
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 7 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Parker · 5 games
Omniknightoften banned
Yadomi · 5 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Matthew · 4 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkMago · 4 games
Crystal Maiden
Yadomi · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
349 picks · 259 bans
Rubick
348 picks · 330 bans
Hoodwink
339 picks · 395 bans
Pangolier
326 picks · 489 bans
Snapfire
305 picks · 266 bans
Sven
290 picks · 303 bans
Dragon Knight
285 picks · 453 bans
Windranger
285 picks · 393 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% Looking for Org
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:23
nouns 58%Looking for Org 42%
The model gave 58% on nouns — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 28:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaYuma
GyrocopterMnz
Monkey KingCopy
TimbersawSacred
UnderlordGunnar
MarsDarkMago
Dark WillowLelis
MiranaMatthew
EnchantressFly
TuskYadomi
Game 2prediction correct32:13
nouns 57%Looking for Org 43%
The model gave 57% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 34:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetCopy
LunaMnz
AlchemistYuma
Earth SpiritDarkMago
MarsGunnar
Night StalkerSacred
MiranaLelis
SnapfireMatthew
Shadow DemonFly
ClockwerkYadomi
Game 3prediction missed21:32
nouns 52%Looking for Org 48%
The model gave 52% on nouns — the game was taken by Looking for Org in 57:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertaYuma
LunaMnz
Queen of PainCopy
Storm SpiritDarkMago
KunkkaGunnar
UnderlordSacred
SniperLelis
MiranaMatthew
TuskFly
OmniknightYadomi
Game 4prediction correct40:8
nouns 56%Looking for Org 44%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 36:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingYuma
LunaMnz
Storm SpiritCopy
MarsDarkMago
KunkkaGunnar
TimbersawSacred
SnapfireLelis
Shadow ShamanMatthew
Treant ProtectorFly
EnchantressYadomi
Game 5prediction correct29:15
nouns 58%Looking for Org 42%
The model gave 58% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 35:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistYuma
Dragon KnightMnz
Monkey KingCopy
Queen of PainDarkMago
KunkkaGunnar
Night StalkerSacred
MiranaLelis
EnchantressYadomi
Shadow DemonFly
SnapfireMatthew
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 64%
Series resultnouns 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5