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PGL Wallachia 2024 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 23 games
52%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 23 games
65%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Lelis · 22 games
68%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fly · 21 game
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Copy · 21 game
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 20 games
55%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Yuma · 19 games
47%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 18 games
61%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Zayac · 22 games
64%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 16 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Sancity · 16 games
56%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Nefrit · 15 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Yuragi · 15 games
60%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Nefrit · 15 games
73%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Sancity · 13 games
69%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
Zayac · 12 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
341 picks · 282 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
337 picks · 432 bans
49%
Enchantress
Enchantress
321 picks · 544 bans
51%
Jakiro
Jakiro
318 picks · 249 bans
44%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
288 picks · 471 bans
46%
Windranger
Windranger
288 picks · 407 bans
52%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
286 picks · 240 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
286 picks · 798 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:35
nouns 58%Natus Vincere 42%
The model gave 58% on nouns — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuma
58% · 83 games47% · 13 games
Drow RangerYuragi
Drow Ranger
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCopy
41% · 68 games47% · 166 games
Timbersawbzm
Timbersaw
Mars
MarsGunnar
55% · 156 games51% · 75 games
UnderlordBOOM
Underlord
Phoenix
PhoenixFly
44% · 183 games47% · 216 games
ClockwerkPuppey
Clockwerk
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonLelis
58% · 184 games49% · 204 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed11:36
nouns 61%Natus Vincere 39%
The model gave 61% on nouns — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 41:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenYuma
48% · 138 games45% · 199 games
RazorYuragi
Razor
Puck
PuckCopy
54% · 232 games51% · 96 games
Earthshakerbzm
Earthshaker
Pangolier
PangolierGunnar
50% · 355 games52% · 384 games
Primal BeastBOOM
Primal Beast
Snapfire
SnapfireLelis
52% · 174 games44% · 234 games
TuskPuppey
Tusk
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
54% · 266 games51% · 252 games
Dark WillowZayac
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 64%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2