ESL One Birmingham 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounswin 1:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 1:0
NNextNextloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Phoenixsignature
Fly · 12 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
Lelis · 12 games
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 11 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
YamSun · 11 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 10 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
YamSun · 9 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Gunnar · 9 games
Magnussignature
Gunnar · 9 games
NextNext
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
306 picks · 451 bans
Phoenix
277 picks · 413 bans
Grimstroke
264 picks · 445 bans
Lion
239 picks · 217 bans
Vengeful Spirit
236 picks · 129 bans
Nature's Prophet
230 picks · 660 bans
Tusk
230 picks · 215 bans
Pangolier
228 picks · 316 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 71%
Hero pool strength59% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
nouns 83%NextNext 17%
The model gave 83% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns.
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 83%
Series resultnouns 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1