nouns vs pomoika — prediction EOKL2ЗК · Dota 2

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ESL One Kuala Lumpur 2023. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

nounswin 2:0

series probability

88%12%

probability at match start · final 2:0

Ppomoikaloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Keeper of the Lightsignature

Lelis · 15 games

67%

Techiessignature

Husky · 15 games

67%

Terrorbladesignature

YamSun · 10 games

60%

Naga Sirensignature

K1 · 8 games

63%

Spirit Breakeroften banned

Moo · 8 games

38%

Windranger

Gunnar · 8 games

50%

Clockwerksignature

Lelis · 7 games

100%

Doomsignature

Moo · 7 games

71%

pomoika

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Vengeful Spirit

225 picks · 273 bans

52%

Grimstroke

210 picks · 240 bans

52%

Dark Willow

207 picks · 92 bans

51%

Pangolier

187 picks · 399 bans

53%

Phoenix

177 picks · 239 bans

48%

Sven

171 picks · 250 bans

57%

Earthshaker

169 picks · 171 bans

59%

Treant Protector

169 picks · 391 bans

66%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%

Hero pool strength55% nouns

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total88% nouns

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct29:11

nouns 73%pomoika 27%

The model gave 73% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 31:16.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo