DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
nounswin 3:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 3:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:3The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 24 games
Miranasignature
Lelis · 21 game
Shadow Demonsignature
Lelis · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Gunnar · 19 games
Rubick
Lelis · 19 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Copy · 18 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 18 games
Windrangeroften banned
Lelis · 18 games
Shopify Rebellion
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 21 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Marsoften banned
SabeRLight- · 15 games
Tinyoften banned
Yopaj · 14 games
Clockwerksignature
Skem · 13 games
Tusksignature
Hellscream · 12 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Pakazs · 10 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
346 picks · 257 bans
Snapfire
345 picks · 280 bans
Pangolier
332 picks · 443 bans
Hoodwink
315 picks · 358 bans
Rubick
311 picks · 307 bans
Windranger
307 picks · 437 bans
Enchantress
300 picks · 520 bans
Dragon Knight
299 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 52%
Hero pool strength53% nouns
Head-to-head5 – 7
Model total62% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:6
nouns 56%Shopify Rebellion 44%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 30:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaYuma
WindrangerTimado
Queen of PainCopy
TinyYopaj
MarsGunnar
Broodmothermangekyou
GrimstrokeLelis
BatriderHellscream
Treant ProtectorFly
OmniknightSkem
Game 2prediction missed15:22
nouns 57%Shopify Rebellion 43%
The model gave 57% on nouns — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerYuma
Dragon KnightTimado
DoomGunnar
Beastmastermangekyou
Storm SpiritCopy
TinyYopaj
SnapfireLelis
MiranaSkem
TuskFly
Shadow DemonHellscream
Game 3prediction correct19:11
nouns 58%Shopify Rebellion 42%
The model gave 58% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 27:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaYuma
Dragon KnightTimado
BristlebackGunnar
PangolierYopaj
Earth SpiritCopy
DoomSkem
EnchantressFly
Visagemangekyou
TuskLelis
Dark WillowHellscream
Game 4prediction correct30:26
nouns 57%Shopify Rebellion 43%
The model gave 57% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 49:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
EarthshakerCopy
LunaTimado
MiranaYuma
Broodmothermangekyou
KunkkaGunnar
Storm SpiritYopaj
GrimstrokeLelis
MuertaHellscream
Elder TitanFly
OmniknightSkem
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 62%
Series resultnouns 3:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 4