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The International 2024 · BO2
result vs prediction
nounsloss 1:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Falconsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Fly · 32 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Copy · 27 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
Lelis · 26 games
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yuma · 23 games
43%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Gunnar · 22 games
41%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Copy · 21 game
62%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Gunnar · 19 games
74%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fly · 19 games
53%

Team Falcons

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 42 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Malr1ne · 34 games
65%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 30 games
77%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 29 games
66%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Sneyking · 27 games
67%
Doom
Doomsignature
ATF · 25 games
84%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 25 games
56%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 24 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
409 picks · 379 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
383 picks · 429 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
369 picks · 533 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
343 picks · 256 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
334 picks · 747 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 644 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 757 bans
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
310 picks · 649 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 58%
Hero pool strength57% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:34
nouns 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 35:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistYuma
51% · 118 games54% · 74 games
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Monkey King
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritCopy
47% · 177 games51% · 192 games
KunkkaATF
Kunkka
Tusk
TuskGunnar
42% · 149 games52% · 92 games
Troll WarlordSkiter
Troll Warlord
Sniper
SniperLelis
53% · 87 games50% · 229 games
Shadow DemonCr1t-
Shadow Demon
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenFly
47% · 297 games54% · 241 game
BatriderSneyking
Batrider
Game 2prediction missed18:15
nouns 43%Team Falcons 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by nouns in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingYuma
46% · 237 games51% · 197 games
RazorATF
Razor
Doom
DoomGunnar
53% · 215 games46% · 57 games
Wraith KingSkiter
Wraith King
Earthshaker
EarthshakerCopy
46% · 80 games55% · 181 game
PuckMalr1ne
Puck
Lion
LionLelis
48% · 165 games52% · 204 games
ClockwerkCr1t-
Clockwerk
Enchantress
EnchantressFly
51% · 244 games49% · 302 games
Shadow DemonSneyking
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 60%
Accuracy by game1 of 2